Is Screening Cargo Containers for Smuggled Nuclear Threats Worthwhile?

In recent years, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has installed radiation sensors to screen cargo containers entering theUnited States. They are concerned that terrorists could use containers to smuggle radiological material into the country and carry out attacks with dirty bombs or a nuclear device. Recent studies have questioned the value of improving this screening system with new sensor technology. The cost of delays caused by frequent false alarms outweighs any reduction in the probability of an attack in an expected cost analysis. We extend existing methodology in three ways to demonstrate how additional factors affect the value of screening investments. We examine the effect that screening has in discouraging terrorists. We model multiple levels of screening. Finally, we consider additional objectives beyond cost. We find that the conclusion about screening depends on key inputs to the probability model (reflecting uncertainties) and to the value function (reflecting the stakeholders’ fundamental objectives)

DVT Surveillance Program in the ICU: Analysis of Cost-Effectiveness

Background Venous Thrombo-embolism (VTE – Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and/or pulmonary embolism (PE) – in traumatized patients causes significant morbidity and mortality. The current study evaluates the effectiveness of DVT surveillance in reducing PE, and performs a cost-effectiveness analysis. Methods All traumatized patients admitted to the adult ICU underwent twice weekly DVT surveillance by bilateral lower extremity venous Duplex examination (48-month surveillance period – SP). The rates of DVT and PE were recorded and compared to the rates observed in the 36-month pre-surveillance period (PSP). All patients in both periods received mechanical and pharmacologic prophylaxis unless contraindicated. Total costs – diagnostic, therapeutic and surveillance – for both periods were recorded and the incremental cost for each Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained was calculated. Results 4234 patients were eligible (PSP – 1422 and SP – 2812). Rate of DVT in SP (2.8%) was significantly higher than in PSP (1.3%) – p Conclusions Surveillance of traumatized ICU patients increases DVT detection and reduces PE incidence. Costs in terms of QALY gained compares favorably with other interventions accepted by society

Adequate Levels of Adherence with Controller Medication Is Associated with Increased Use of Rescue Medication in Asthmatic Children

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A portfolio analysis of autism research funding in Aotearoa New Zealand 2007–2021

Previously documented global trends in autism research funding have been skewed towards biology research, which is at odds with the priorities expressed by autistic and autism community members. We aimed to document the areas of autism research that have previously been funded in Aotearoa New Zealand, and to explore the views of the autistic and autism communities on this funding distribution. We searched for research grants awarded to autism research in Aotearoa New Zealand between 2007 and 2021. We categorised the funding for autism research to enable comparison to that previously documented in other countries. We elicited the views of the autistic and autism communities in relation to the funded autism research, through an online survey and a series of focus groups. The largest proportion of money and number of grants was awarded to biological research. Community members expressed dissatisfaction with this pattern of funding, and noted that it does not address the needs and priorities of the autistic community. Community members suggested that the funding pattern indicated a lack of autistic consultation and engagement in research design and funding allocation. The priorities of the autistic and autism communities need to be considered by researchers and funders alike. We discuss how autistic inclusion in research can be supported through decision-making regarding funding and ethics relating to autism research. Lay Abstract: We aimed to document the areas of autism research that have previously been funded in Aotearoa New Zealand. We searched for research grants awarded to autism research in Aotearoa New Zealand between 2007 and 2021. We compared the funding distribution in Aotearoa New Zealand to other countries. We asked people from the autistic community and broader autism community whether they were satisfied with this funding pattern, and whether it aligned with what is important to them and to autistic people. We found that the majority of funding for autism research was awarded to biology research (67%). Members of the autistic and autism communities were dissatisfied with the funding distribution, and expressed a lack of alignment with what is important to them. People from the community indicated that the funding distribution did not address the priorities of autistic people, and that it indicated a lack of engagement with autistic people. Autism research funding needs to reflect the priorities of the autistic and autism communities. Autistic people need to be included in autism research and related funding decisions

Genetic diversity of equine herpesvirus 1 isolated from neurological, abortigenic and respiratory disease outbreaks

Equine herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) causes respiratory disease, abortion, neonatal death and neurological disease in equines and is endemic in most countries. The viral factors that influence EHV-1 disease severity are poorly understood, and this has hampered vaccine development. However, the N752D substitution in the viral DNA polymerase catalytic subunit has been shown statistically to be associated with neurological disease. This has given rise to the term “neuropathic strain,” even though strains lacking the polymorphism have been recovered from cases of neurological disease. To broaden understanding of EHV-1 diversity in the field, 78 EHV-1 strains isolated over a period of 35 years were sequenced. The great majority of isolates originated from the United Kingdom and included in the collection were low passage isolates from respiratory, abortigenic and neurological outbreaks. Phylogenetic analysis of regions spanning 80% of the genome showed that up to 13 viral clades have been circulating in the United Kingdom and that most of these are continuing to circulate. Abortion isolates grouped into nine clades, and neurological isolates grouped into five. Most neurological isolates had the N752D substitution, whereas most abortion isolates did not, although three of the neurological isolates from linked outbreaks had a different polymorphism. Finally, bioinformatic analysis suggested that recombination has occurred between EHV-1 clades, between EHV-1 and equine herpesvirus 4, and between EHV-1 and equine herpesvirus 8

Tri-locus sequence data reject a Gondwanan origin hypothesis for the African/South Pacific crab genus Hymenosoma

Crabs of the family Hymenosomatidae are common in coastal and shelf regions throughout much of the southern hemisphere. One of the genera in the family, Hymenosoma, is represented in Africa and the South Pacific (Australia and New Zealand). This distribution can be explained either by vicariance (presence of the genus on the Gondwanan supercontinent and divergence following its break-up) or more recent transoceanic dispersal from one region to the other. We tested these hypotheses by reconstructing phylogenetic relationships among the seven presently-accepted species in the genus, as well as examining their placement among other hymenosomatid crabs, using sequence data from two nuclear markers (Adenine Nucleotide Transporter [ANT] exon 2 and 18S rDNA) and three mitochondrial markers (COI, 12S and 16S rDNA). The five southern African representatives of the genus were recovered as a monophyletic lineage, and another southern African species, Neorhynchoplax bovis, was identified as their sister taxon. The two species of Hymenosoma from the South Pacific neither clustered with their African congeners, nor with each other, and should therefore both be placed into different genera. Molecular dating supports a post-Gondwanan origin of the Hymenosomatidae. While long-distance dispersal cannot be ruled out to explain the presence of the family Hymenosomatidae on the former Gondwanan land-masses and beyond, the evolutionary history of the African species of Hymenosoma indicates that a third means of speciation may be important in this group: gradual along-coast dispersal from tropical towards temperate regions, with range expansions into formerly inhospitable habitat during warm climatic phases, followed by adaptation and speciation during subsequent cooler phases

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere